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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 13:41:35 GMT -5
Jason, I guess you're saying profiling needs refining with proper geo-racial profiling. What about your perception of where the danger lies even with your estimations?
It's about 30-6 in percentages whites vs black males. 30 whites to every 6 blacks.
If Blacks are 2x as likely to be a SK/"multiple murderer" and there's 30 whites and 6 blacks, who should you worry about becoming a serial killer more - one of the 30 whites or one of the 6 black?
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Post by catherine on Jan 18, 2018 19:11:24 GMT -5
Jason, I guess you're saying profiling needs refining with proper geo-racial profiling. What about your perception of where the danger lies even with your estimations?
It's about 30-6 in percentages whites vs black males. 30 whites to every 6 blacks.
If Blacks are 2x as likely to be a SK/"multiple murderer" and there's 30 whites and 6 blacks, who should you worry about becoming a serial killer more - one of the 30 whites or one of the 6 black? When there are white victims involved, profilers -- though I have no confidence in them myself -- should definitely consider black, Hispanic, Asian and Middle Eastern suspects in their profiles. Have you forgotten the Zebra Murders from back in the 1970's, when a group of black Muslims, who called themselves the "Death Angels," killed 15 white victims and are suspected of killing as many as 73?
I don't know where you live, but I live in Alabama and a lot of people down here were upset about how the Derrick Todd Lee case was mishandled, not only by profilers, but by the police. It's probably more the fault of police than the profilers because the police completely ignored the description given by the two cemetery victims and if they had considered it, there's a good possibility that black bastard could have been caught back in the early '90s before he murdered all those women in the late '90s and early 2000's.
By John Springer (Court TV)
They thought he was white and lived in Baton Rouge. But the man they arrested is black and lived in a suburb.
They said he was probably a loner who lacked mobility. Turns out the suspect is a husband and father of two who drove a truck.
The FBI behavioral profile of the killer responsible for a series of slayings in the southern part of Louisiana was flawed in many ways. But no one knew the extents of its flaws until investigators arrested 34-year-old suspect Derrick Todd Lee in connection with two murders and announced that he was a suspect in at least three others.
When he was arrested, relatives of some of the women Lee is suspected of killing rushed before the cameras with complaints and questions.
What made the profilers think the suspect was white, and did Lee go unnoticed because he isn't?
If the profilers had created a behavioral composite that hit more of the marks, might Lee have been arrested before the last two victims died?
The questions nag, but since Lee's arrest, authorities have celebrated the interagency cooperation in the intensive investigation and pointed out that FBI profilers had always cautioned that their assessment of the killer's psyche was based on his crimes and those of other serial killers.
The Washington-area sniper or snipers confounded profilers as well.
The nine-page behavioral profile the Louisiana homicide task force released last August starts out cautiously, noting that while the suspect is probably 25 to 35 years old the killer could be older or younger. Experts say it is standard for the FBI to couch its assessment, in case its wrong and in case a defense lawyer decides to use it at trial.
But as the Louisiana profile continues, the verbiage becomes less conditional, less cautionary. The words "probably," "perhaps" and "most likely" become fewer and farther between.
"This offender wants to be seen as someone who is attractive and appealing to women. However, his level of sophistication in interacting with women, especially women who are above him in the social strata, is low," the profile proclaims. "Any contact he has had with women he has found attractive would be described by these women as 'awkward.'"
That is hardly a description one can give a detective and say, "Now, go investigate," but experts in the still-evolving field say that people who think a behavioral profile is going to catch a killer are missing the point.
"Anytime a highly visible investigation goes on, when the case isn't solved, people start screaming for a profile. 'We want an FBI profile!'" said Robert Ressler, a retired FBI agent who spent 16 years in the Behavioral Science Unit at the FBI National Academy in Quantico, Va. "The fact is, when a profile is done, it is not a solution to a case. It is one part of a bigger picture. It's another element to the investigation that is going to give you more dimension."
Following the arrest of the Louisiana suspect and the suspects in the Washington-area sniper shootings, the public and the media immediately questioned the validity and usefulness of profiles that were materially wrong. But believers in behavioral profiling like Ressler say that the critics should look at the elements of the profiles that were on target.
"Think of it this way. If you get nine or 10 [characteristics] right out of a dozen, that would be good," Ressler said.
In the Louisiana case, the profilers believed the suspect was lower middle class or having financial difficulties. Lee, the suspect, filed for bankruptcy last year.
The profile also indicated that the killer would likely follow media accounts of the investigation and would even talk about them with other people. As it turns out, according to the Zachary, La., police chief during a press conference, one of Lee's relatives tipped off police that he was discussing the disappearance of a 28-year-old woman who wasn't even on the task force's investigative radar.
Accurate, well-reasoned profiles based on a close examination of case file have a place in investigation, but too many profiles in serial killings read pretty much the same, Brent Turvey added.
"The insights they were giving in the Louisiana profile were cut and paste and a lot of stuff was contradictory in significant ways," Turvey continued. "It really amounted to a zero. The profile was terribly internally conflicted. It looked like something written by a ninth grader."
And that's not 20-20 hindsight. Turvey and other experts in the field were critical of the Louisiana profile — and the sniper investigation before that — as being too generic, too cookie cutter. A number of profilers not involved in the Louisiana investigation directly suggested that police look for someone with a history of burglaries, like Lee, but the FBI profile offered no such insight.
"Make it simple for the public. Don't give them a seven-page description of a psychopath," said Pat Brown, an investigative criminal profiler who teaches on the subject. "I think they turn out a generic profile and it goes out on every case: he's a loser, he's probably between 25 and 35 and has problems with women."
The problem with profiles, and the criticism that comes when they are found to miss the mark, isn't new and likely will not change, Brown continued. She recommends that police share what they know from crime scene analysis and keep their theories to themselves.
"I'm sorry, most of the psychological stuff is junk," she said. "Putting together a vague, generic profile doesn't serve anyone."
"If you are putting out profiles that are terribly uninformed and inaccurate, I think that does harm to the case," said Brent Turkey, a private sector criminal profiler and secretary of the Academy of Behavioral Profiling.
"We saw that in the [Washington-area] sniper case. They were looking for a white male," said Turvey, noting that two blacks were eventually caught and charged in the multistate spree. "In the Baton Rouge case, they were looking for a white male living in Baton Rouge. They weren't looking for a black male who lived outside Baton Rouge." news.findlaw.com/court_tv/s/20030601/01jun2003112521.html
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Post by jason on Jan 22, 2018 17:20:03 GMT -5
Jason, I guess you're saying profiling needs refining with proper geo-racial profiling. What about your perception of where the danger lies even with your estimations?
It's about 30-6 in percentages whites vs black males. 30 whites to every 6 blacks.
If Blacks are 2x as likely to be a SK/"multiple murderer" and there's 30 whites and 6 blacks, who should you worry about becoming a serial killer more - one of the 30 whites or one of the 6 black? As you know, I don't put a lot of stock in profiling, but as Catherine said, in the Derrick Todd Lee case, profilers didn't pay enough attention to what witnesses said and paid too much attention to the perceptions of police officers, which we know, are often wrong. The Lee case hit close to home for a lot of people who knew some of the victims, as I did, or were related to some of the victims, as Catherine was, and it left some of us with a lot of doubts when it comes to criminal profiling.
When Ted Bundy killed the women in Tallahassee, Florida, he was profiled and from what I've read and heard, very little in the profile was correct. When those murders hit the news, law enforcement officers in Washington, Utah and Colorado began calling law enforcement officers in Tallahassee, advising them to look for Theodore Robert Bundy, but the Florida officers ignored them. In law enforcement, I've found that officers often get stuck on a particular suspect or what sort of man committed the crime and refuse to consider anyone or anything to the contrary.
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Post by Sam on Jan 28, 2018 22:56:44 GMT -5
Does anybody know what happened to beyonder? He asked all of these questions and then just quit posting.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2018 12:01:21 GMT -5
If Blacks are 2x as likely to be a SK/"multiple murderer" and there's 30 whites and 6 blacks, who should you worry about becoming a serial killer more - one of the 30 whites or one of the 6 black? By the ratio that means a serial killer is twice as likely to be a white guy than a black guy. Ratio Profiling. Ha!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2018 17:22:29 GMT -5
2x the odds means 15 blacks or equivalent (71/2 doubled) equals 30 whites.
You only got 6 for every 30 so doubled only give you 12 versus 30 so 2.5 times as many whites and 2.5 times the chances of one being white.
The problem with profiling is the same as anything else. Too much elitism creeps in. And common sense goes out. I think psychics lose their power too when they get famous.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2018 0:33:55 GMT -5
The other thread on scam jobs rates profiling as a scam. It also rates sports writers as non experts in sports. Well, sports writers are writers first. They're good a writing, then they are good at the subject. Excuse me if there are any writers here but normally the writer isn't the best expert. Similarly the best profilers are not the ones with a badge. I'm sure they're good at something else before they're good at profiling. I'm sure you'd find better profilers on proboards but the FBI prefers to talk to killers.
You can't honestly say there's no way you can profile a criminal based on his crimes. Baton Rouge should have been considered an "outsider" right off the bat. Especially if he's a minority in the neighborhood and it's becoming a serial "spectacle". He would need anonymity.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2018 1:34:16 GMT -5
The ratio of other crimes is about 60:40 when the population ratio is 31:6 percent so you have 2x versus 7x so I estimate Blacks commit crimes 3 1/2 times more often yet they are only 2 x more likely than a White to be a serial killer (less to be a Ted Bundy type but I don't know by how much). So it's well within the margin of error that I'm setting. www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/apr/02/sally-kohn/sally-kohn-white-men-69-percent-arrested-violent/Whites however are consistent in their commission of crimes in general and their cold-blooded women killing. 60% of criminals 52 % of serial killers, of majority women.Also I don't really rate rapists who break into a house and kill so as not to be identified as real legit serial killers but the end result is the same so I won't make an issue. Actually I think the percentage of Caucasian Serial Killers is closer to 70 percent. This site says 84 but I think they're mixing Hispanics in with Caucasians. www.factretriever.com/serial-killer-factsSo 31 into 70 is about 2 and 1/3. That means their percentage is 2.3 times the White Male Pop. Blacks are still at 3.3 times the Black Male Pop. So 1 and a half times more.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2018 23:18:59 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2018 0:37:06 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2018 15:50:41 GMT -5
I got a factor of 1.5 with a percentage of 20 for blacks and 70 for Whites but he got roughly a factor of 2 with 22% for Blacks and 78 for Whites. I don't know what his populations percentages were but I think we're still close. I haven't read his conclusions about that. I'll read them and get back on that. Blacks are almost doubly represented among the ranks but I don't think it's decidedly over-represented considering various factors. We'll see.
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